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Major Takeaways: Yardi Multifamily Report – October 2019

The extended period of good performance has produced one bad side effect: legislation enacted in three states to limit rent growth and pressure to act in more states. After a period of below-par growth in housing stock, the U.S. needs more units built, but rent control moves the needle in the opposite direction.

Earlier this week, Yardi Matrix issued its National Multifamily Report for October that highlighted supply and demand, rent growth trends, and political activity as we approached the end of Q4.

Yardi

 

According to the report, multifamily rent growth inched upward in October, as the average U.S. multifamily rent increased by $1 to $1,476. Year-over-year rent growth remained at 3.2%. Despite the expected slower month during the fourth quarter, Yardi expects continuous demand a slowly growing economy to keep rent growth above its long-term average.

The multifamily sector’s continuous strength over multiple years has resulted in an elevated number of rent-burdened households. In consequence, an increase in political pressure has yielded new rent control laws in three states: New York, California, and Oregon.

According to the Joint Center of Housing Studies at Harvard University, “More than 20 million renter households spend over 30% of income on housing, and 80% of renters and 63% of owners making less than $30,000 are cost-burdened.”

Yardi dubs rent control as counterproductive as it reduces investment, limits new development which perpetuates unaffordability, increases the cost burden on those who move or enter a new market, and reduces the incentive to make capital improvements which leads to degradation of already existing stock. Outlined affordability solutions include reducing exclusionary zoning, allowing more density, and more subsidized new developments.

Click here to view Yardi Matrix’s October Multifamily National Report in its entirety

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Multifamily in 2019

Despite some reservations before the start of the year, multifamily real estate performed well in 2018. But as we look toward the beginning of the new year, it would prudent of investors and owners to prepare for as the market is expected to shift in a different direction.

Earlier this week, Karlin Conklin, a value-add multifamily expert with a transactional volume exceeding $1.3 billion, outlined three primary factors that could shift the multifamily market in the upcoming year including “pressure from volatile financial markets, a growing housing supply, and emerging development risks.”

Interest Rates And Multifamily

With the economy cruising at a comfortable level, The Federal Reserve has had their foot on the break throughout 2018. It raised the federal funds rate to a 2 percent to 2.25 percent during its November meeting, making it the third rate increase of 2018. A fourth and final increase is expected to come during the Fed’s December meeting. But how will this affect multifamily real estate in the coming months?b1da3076093b404ea90f5996c18540df.jpgAccording to Conklin, debt pricing “looms as the largest multifamily market mover in the coming year… And more so than any other investment, real estate class, or multifamily asset, pricing is tied to debt pricing.” Overall, as borrowing becomes more expensive, the more cap rates will have to be adjusted; and as a result, Conklin sees 2019 as more of a buyer’s market with acquisitions being motivated by assets that are “right priced” to account for rising interest rates.

Supply or Demand?

Throughout 2018, operating dynamics were favorable for multifamily real estate. The combination of increasing rents and high occupancies often resulted in operating expense surpluses. Although, that sweet spot did not last forever. In fact, the industry has started to see a decline in demand, and many markets are now over-supplied. Conklin uses Seattle and Boston has prime examples. Over the last five years, the two markets had “red-hot rent growth” and attracted plenty of developers to capitalize on the high demand and low supply.

Fast forward to November 2018. Seattle and Boston are now pushing through multifamily deliveries that ” put the brakes on rent growth to levels between 0% and 1.5% on a year-over-year Q3-2018 basis, according to Zillow. That compares with annualized rent increases from 2015 to 2017 near 7% in Seattle and 5% in Boston and Nashville.”

In summary, it’s important for investors, owners, and developers to realize how new deliveries are, and will, impact asset values in their current and prospective markets as demand and supply begin to invert.

Development Risks

Beyond the macroeconomic factors that consistently dictate multifamily trends, variables such as trade tariffs, labor shortages, and local government regulation will shape the path for multifamily real estate’s near future.

On a national level, trade tariffs on materials such as steel, lumber, and electronic components have bumped the cost of construction line items by more than 10 percent year-over-year. There has been a specific labor shortage in the construction sector due to a rise in labor costs. The National Association of Home Builders reported in a recent survey that 69% of its members were experiencing delays in completing projects on time due to a shortage of qualified workers, while other jobs were lost altogether.

Post-recession rent growth has put housing affordability in the spotlight, and local governments in some markets are responding with affordable set-aside mandates and rent control proposals. For example, many cities in California have seen the number of citizens vying for citywide rent control vastly increase. Fortunately for multifamily investors and professionals, rent control propositions in California have generally been unsuccessful.

Overall, Conklin still sees opportunities for new construction and renovation in 2019, but with a thinner margin of error.

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Click Here if you’d like to read Karlin Conklin’s article in its entirety.

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Marcus & Millichap/NREI Investor Sentiment Survey

Earlier this week, Marcus & Millichap and National Real Estate Investor (NREI) distributed the results of their second-half Investor Sentiment Survey.

Researchers collected data by emailing invitations to participate in this online survey to public and private investors and developers of commercial real estate. Recipients of the survey included Marcus & Millichap clients as well as subscribers of NREI selected from commercial real estate investor, pension fund, and developer business subscribers who provided their email addresses.

The survey was conducted in the third quarter of 2018, with 543 completed surveys received. Survey respondents represent a broad cross-section of industry respondents that include private investors, developers, advisors, lenders, and REITs among others.

The largest percentage of respondents are private investors at 45%. Respondents are invested in a variety of property types with a majority of 66% invested in apartments.

Tax Reform and How it Has Affected Investor Sentiment

After the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act was approved, investor confidence was high and trending upward, but the most recent survey shows that same confidence level has regressed to 150 – the same level as the second half Investor Sentiment Survey of 2017. See Figure 1 for a visual representation.

Despite the lowered confidence level, many survey participants maintain positive views of tax reform. According to the collected data, 57% of respondents think the economy will grow faster as a result of the new taxes compared to the 68% who held the same view in the first half survey. Furthermore, one-third of respondents expect growth to remain the same and 10% expect slower growth in the future.

The 60% of respondents who said they consider tax reform to be favorable for commercial real estate also reflects a drop compared to the 71% who held the same view at the beginning of the year. See Figure 2 for a visual representation.

John Chang, senior vice president of research services at Marcus & Millichap, expressed uncertainty regarding the effects of tax reform by stating, “Investors are still getting their arms around the new tax law, so it’s still a little too early to anticipate a lot of change resulting from tax reform.”

That said, over 50% of survey respondents do expect tax changes to increase the flow of investment capital and 46% think the new tax laws will raise property values.

Interest Rates

Continually increasing interest rates have become one of the biggest concerns for investors. Approximately 65% of respondents note rising interest rates as their primary concern followed by unforeseen shocks to the economy at 48%. Both political uncertainty and rising operating expenses round out the top investing concerns for respondents at 44%. See Figure 4 for a visual representation.

“The Fed has implied that it will likely raise rates again in December, although whether or not they follow through with that remains to be seen,” says David Shillington, president of Marcus & Millichap Capital Corp. He also noted that there could be some risk to the economy if short-term rates were to rise above the long-term rates, which is often interpreted as a sign of an upcoming recession.

Apartment Outlook

Investors maintain a bullish outlook on apartment performance, but the desire to increase holdings has consistently declined over the past few years. 50% of apartment owners think it is better to hold, while the other half is torn between buying and selling. Although, buying confidence has decreased since hitting a peak in 2010 when over 70% of respondents were eagerly targeting multifamily properties.

The apartment sector has performed well for a number of years now, but investors are becoming concerned about the volume of construction coming into the market. On average, developers are delivering roughly 270,000 new units per year for the past five years.

However, thanks to the robust economy, absorption of new units has been keeping pace with construction. John S. Sebree, first vice president, national director of the National Multi Housing Group at Marcus & Millichap, credits the health absorption rate to significant household formation. In addition, Sebree noted that housing demand is expected to outpace completions on a national level.

The majority of survey respondents have a favorable outlook on apartment performance. Similar to past surveys, 62% of survey responders expect the general value of apartment properties to increase. The average expected value increase is 3.5%, down from the predicted 5% in the first half survey, but still, a very healthy level compared to other property types.

Investor Strategy

Despite indications of caution, survey responders are maintaining their optimism for the economy and real estate performance. 79% of respondents believe strong job growth will continue through 2018 and into 2019.

Most respondents agree real estate continues to offer more favorable returns than other investment classes and that it is better to invest in real estate rather than the stock market. Investors are also well-resources with 56% of respondents claiming they have an abundance of capital to invest.

Overall, investors are becoming more selective at this point of the economic cycle, but remain active and confident in the market.

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*All statistics, figures, and quotes accredited to Marcus & Millichap/NREI Second Half 2018 Commercial Real Estate Investor Outlook

Click here to view the Investor Sentiment Survey Report in its entirety

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Accelerated Rent Growth and Projecting Occupancy

“Demand for 106,716 apartments in the third quarter well surpassed completions that totaled 83,170 units, RealPage reported. Year-to-date, the country’s occupied apartment count has increased by 295,750 units compared to new project deliveries totaling 232,911 units.”

In a recent article for MBA Newslink, author Michael Tucker highlighted recent rent growth trends and expected occupancy rates as we approach the end of the year. This article provides statistics reported by RealPage, Richardson, Texas. RealPage -EPIC Asset ManagementAccording to RealPage’s statistics, U.S. apartment rent growth accelerated to a 2.9 percent annual pace in the third quarter. RealPage chief economist, Greg Willett, said this step up from the second quarter’s rent growth percentage has reversed the slowing pattern of apartment price increases recorded since late 2015.

 

Despite the momentum surpassing expectations in the third quarter, it remains to be seen how it has affected the overall picture. That said, Willett did note that apartment owners “gained a little more pricing power” during the quarter as occupancy increased from 95.4 percent to 95.8 percent.

To view this article in its entirety, click here.

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Apartment List’s Renter Confidence Survey

Recently, Apartment List, a home-finding service that offers apartment recommendations based on personal experiences and preferences, released results from its third annual Renter Confidence Survey. According to Apartment List, the Renter Confidence Survey “is the largest survey focused exclusively on renters, providing unique insight into what states and cities must do to meet the needs of America’s 111 million renters.”

The survey is based on 45,000 survey responses gathered between October 1, 2016 and December 6, 2017, to determine the best/worst cities for apartment renters. Survey respondents gave their cities an overall score based 11 rating factors such as safety, affordability, job opportunities, weather, taxes, and more. Below is a graphical representation of overall renter satisfaction by state: 

Click here to interact with the graphic above

Here are some key overall findings from the Renter Confidence Survey:

  • Overall, the top four rated cities for renters are Plano, TX, Huntington Beach, CA, Scottsdale, AZ, and Cambridge, MA.
  • Among the 50 largest U.S. cities, Raleigh, NC, Boston, MA, Virginia Beach, VA and Minneapolis, MN earned the top scores for renter satisfaction. The lowest-rated cities were Detroit, MI, Oakland, CA and Tucson, AZ.
  • Small to mid-sized cities tended to receive higher ratings than large cities. 38 percent of small to mid-sized cities received A- or higher compared to large cities’ 24 percent.
  • States rated most-highly by their renters are Colorado, Alaska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Idaho. States with the lowest ratings from their renters are Arkansas, Lousiana, Mississippi, Wyoming, and West Virgina.
  • Millennial renters love Boulder, CO, Madison, WI, and Arlington, VA.

In addition to overall ratings, renters rated specific factors that have a direct impact on their renting experience. Important takeaways include:

  • Markets with the most unsatisfied renters based on job opportunity are mostly southwest cities hit hard by recession such as Santa Ana, CA, San Bernardino, CA, Glendale, AZ, and Mesa, AZ.
  • Based on safety, renters rate Plano, TX, Boulder, CO, and Irvine, CA the highest.  Renters feel the least safe in Stockton, CA, San Bernardino, CA, New Orleans, LA, Memphis, TN, and Newark, NJ.
  • It’s no surprise Colorado and California have the highest-rated weather. Cold weather cities in the Rust Belt and Northeast have the lowest-rated weather.
  • Renters gave high ratings to college towns such as Boulder, CO, Ann Arbor, MI, Raleigh, NC, and Madison, WI for their social life.

Other important findings:

  • Only 38 percent of renters are satisfied with the cost of living in their city.
  • The top three factors renters are most satisfied with include commute time, pet-friendliness, and recreational activities.
  • The four factors that are most indicative of overall renter satisfaction are safety, job opportunities, social life, and recreational activities.

AXIOMetrics – July 2017 Jobs Report

Earlier this week, AXIOMetrics, a market research company that provides strategic insight reports for real estate professionals, issued its July 2017 jobs report.

Here are some major takeaways:

  • 209,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in July
  • The national unemployment rate slightly dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%
  • Top five annual job growth markets – New York City, Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Orlando
  • Washington D.C. and Minneapolis-St. Paul move into top 10 of job-gaining metros

Beyond the major takeaways from the July jobs report, AXIOMetrics breaks down job growth by industry, analyzes how the Federal Reserve may interpret the current and upcoming economic climate, and explains how metrics like inflation and unemployment interact with each other.

The report also includes numerous graphs and visual aids to show how certain statistics compare to past metrics, but given the abundance of useful information provided by AXIOMetrics’ research, a personal analysis of the report is suggested to ensure a full understanding of job growth in the U.S. during July 2017.

Click here for the full AXIOMetrics July 2017 jobs report

An Expert’s Opinion

Yesterday we discussed some useful research tools commercial real estate professionals can take advantage of to gain insight on their targeted market. We highlighted Yardi Systems as one of the industry leaders in real estate investment and property management software by providing detailed analyses pertaining to market characteristics such as demographics, median incomes, and other important micro and macro indicators.

Today we will be listening to a recent interview provided by Multifamily 5, a podcast hosted by the Dallas-based multifamily broker, Mark Allen, aimed at interviewing real estate investors, brokers, and other industry pundits to learn some of their keys to success.

In this particular podcast, the leader of the Yardi Matrix team, Jeff Adler, discusses his top six markets that are poised for success in the near future, how the real estate industry interacts with Yardi Matrix software, the benefits of class B, value-add properties, future economic cycles, and much more.

Click here to hear Adler’s expert opinion on his top six markets and how to use Yardi software programs to gain a better understanding of your desired market.

Helpful Research Tools

Accurately assessing the real estate industry takes much more than a good hunch. Gaining a full understanding of a market takes years worth of knowledge and experience, solid relationships with other industry professionals, and continuous research to stay updated on current and future trends.

Fortunately, with so many useful tools, software programs, and other analytical technologies readily available, making well-informed, successful real estate decisions is more achievable than ever before.

For example, Yardi Systems, an industry leader in real estate investment and property management software, provides valuable research to real estate professionals in markets such as multifamily, single family, senior, military, and many other housing categories. Yardi also offers business solutions to other real estate market segments such as retail, self-storage, office, and industrial property types.

Click here for more information on Yardi multifamily research and business solutions: Yardi Matrix  

Aside from Yardi, there are numerous corporations such as CBRE, CoStar, and REIS who provide industry reports and research insights to assist asset managers and owners in making the most informed real estate decisions possible.

Check out tomorrow’s blog post for an in-depth interview between DFW-based multifamily broker, Mark Allen, and Jeff Adler, Vice President of Yardi Matrix Products. Discussions include Adler’s top six markets to keep an eye on and how industry professionals can benefit from Yardi Matrix Products.